International news
The Guardian Weekly 09.10.09 3
France and Germany are expected to move swiftly to enact reforms
EU serenade ... graffito by French artist Jef Aerosol in Dublin PA
Irish `yes' to Lisbon treaty boosts
chances of EU president Blair
Henry McDonald and Toby Helm
Observer
InadramaticU-turn,Irelandvotedlast
weekendinfavouroftheLisbontreaty
just 17 months after rejecting the EU's
package of reforms.
Two-thirds of the Irish elector-
ate backed the treaty � a result that
European commission president Jos�
Manuel Barroso described as a "great
day for Europe and a great day for
Ireland". In June 2008 only 10 out of
Ireland's 43 parliamentary constitu-
encies voted in favour of Lisbon; in
this referendum 41 constituencies
endorsed it.
DeclanGanley,themultimillionaire
businessman who played a key role in
securing a No vote in 2008, accused
thepro-Europeanpartiesofplayingon
fears about jobs and the recession to
intimidate the electorate to vote Yes.
The result was a boost for Brian
Cowen, Ireland's embattled Taoi-
seach. His government's popularity
has plunged to a historic low due to
the recession, the banking crisis and
rising unemployment. Cowen said
that securing guarantees on Irish
neutrality, the retention of an Irish
commissioner in Brussels and no
threat to the country's ban on abor-
tion had been crucial in reversing the
vote of 2008.
European leaders led by Angela
Merkel of Germany and Nicolas
Sarkozy of France were expected this
week to act swiftly to make the EU's
reform charter a reality after Ireland's
vote, despite the resistance of Vaclav
Klaus, the president of the Czech
Republic.
The strong endorsement of the
Lisbon treaty by the Irish has sparked
the jockeying for position over the
plum jobs that it creates, with Tony
Blair now a clear favourite to become
the first permanent EU president.
The posts of president of the coun-
cil and that of a new foreign policy
chief with enhanced powers are
among the biggest changes under the
treaty. Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish
prime minister and current EU presi-
dent, is canvassing names to engineer
aconsensusonwhoshouldfillthetwo
top posts. Blair's interest in becoming
president has been Europe's worst-
kept secret for more than a year.
One of the great ironies of Lisbon
is that it was born at a time when
European leaders were vowing � fol-
lowingthecollapseofitspredecessor,
the Constitutional treaty � to create a
Europe "closer to the people". Yet its
first official, permanent president of
the council will be chosen in the least
democratic of ways � behind closed
doors by the 27 EU heads of state and
government and without any candi-
date having campaigned before the
court of public opinion.
"If you come out campaigning and
saying you want it, that could be seen
by heads of government as stepping
out of line," said a UK insider. "They
see it as their call."
So Blair has been running a non-
campaign campaign for months. He
has not said he wants the job, but
neither has he said he does not. Close
supporters of Blair believe that he is,
asoneveryseniorfigureputit,"pretty
well-placed" and are now prepared to
advance his case more actively. They
knowthatfewimportantdecisionsare
reached in the EU without a French-
German seal of approval.
British officials feel that, following
her re-election as German chancellor,
Merkel can afford to enthuse about a
president Blair.
There is still deep resentment
amongGermany'spoliticalclassesand
itspublicatBlair'ssupportfortheIraq
war, and he is seen as having failed to
stamp his pro-European mark on UK
Just a mirage Britain's economic model
does not deserve to be saved
Deborah Orr, page 20
policy when prime minister. The UK's
position outside the eurozone does
him no favours either in a country in
which the onward march of integra-
tion is seen as a moral, as well as a po-
litical, imperative.
But with Merkel's position rein-
forced, Blair's supporters are confi-
dent she will team up with Sarkozy,
the first European leader to suggest
Blair would be good for the job.
Blair's transatlantic enthusiasms,
his environmental interests and
Middle East contacts would all be key
assetsinthetaskofpunchingEurope's
weight across the globe.
Reinfeldtwantsnominationsforthe
two top jobs by the end of the month,
whenanEUsummitinBrusselsshould
decide on a consensus. The job must
go to a former or serving head of gov-
ernment or state in Europe and he or
she will chair summits of European
leaders.
Strangely, what else he or she does
is unclear. Senior diplomats say it will
beuptowhoevergetsthejobtoshape
it.
Whoever is installed, there will be
frictions with Barroso, who has just
obtained a second five-year term, and
with the leaders of the various coun-
tries at the helm of the six-monthly
rotating EU presidency.
Reinfeldt is known to have reserva-
tions about Blair, worried the inter-
ests of the EU's smaller countries will
receive short shrift if the new presi-
dent comes from one of the EU's big
four � Germany, France, Britain and
Italy.
Other names in the frame are
Jan-Peter Balkenende, the Christian
Democrat Dutch prime minister;
Paavo Lipponen, the former Finnish
premier, a social democrat; Felipe
Gonz�lez,thecentre-leftformerSpan-
ish leader; and Jean-Claude Juncker,
theconservativeveteranLuxembourg
prime minister.
All eyes in Brussels, Berlin, and
Paris are now on Prague, where Klaus
now stands alone between the Irish
referendum and getting the treaty
up and running. He is the most euro-
sceptic leader in office in the EU and
insists that he will not sign off on a
Lisbon treaty that has already been
ratified by the Czech parliament. His
only support comes from British op-
position leader David Cameron.
Tory party conference, page 14

Page 1Page 2Page 3Page 4Page 5Page 6Page 7Page 8Page 9Page 10Page 11Page 12Page 13Page 14Page 15Page 16Page 17Page 18Page 19Page 20Page 21Page 22Page 23Page 24Page 25Page 26Page 27Page 28Page 29Page 30Page 31Page 32Page 33Page 34Page 35Page 36Page 37Page 38Page 39Page 40Page 41Page 42Page 43Page 44Page 45Page 46Page 47Page 48 Produced by PageSuite