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TheActuary
Editorial
The day the outlier came to town
As I write this it is 8.35pm on 16 September and AIG is still solvent.
By the time the magazine is published, it is very possible that AIG
will have a different structure and the financial world as I know it
tonight may have changed even more than it has in the past day.
This morning I attended a PR meeting for a high-profile industry
body, where a group of senior actuaries discussed how the demise of
Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch may impact the communities in
which actuaries work. I confess we couldn't find words to express a
view as to the short-term impact of the events of yesterday.
The long-term impact of 15 September 2008 is beyond any
confident prediction that an actuary could reasonably have made.
Yesterday was an outlier, on the edge of the funnel of doubt
which, like Hurricane Ike, unexpectedly came to town.
When outlier events happen in the financial community the
public must question whether actuaries, and economists, who
hold the other side of the crystal ball, add anything to the mix.
As an actuary, I can't predict the future but I know that I hold
a valuable qualification which enables me to assist companies
and trustees in managing risks and I can provide my clients with
comfort when events unfold that are out of our hands.
The letters, phone calls and contributions we receive at The
Actuary indicate that my views are not unique. Our letter of
the month tells of how one actuary is bringing his skills to a
commercial bank while, outside the profession, author and
quantitative analyst, Paul Wilmott, calls on actuaries to bring
some common sense back into his field (see page 10).
There is talk in the press of a new financial architecture and,
echoing Ronnie Bowie's comments on page 6, I
believe that actuaries are very able to help build it.
Only time will show us the long-term effects
of 15 September 2008. However, the short-
term is happening now, unfolding around
us day by day and we are arguably the best
placed profession to mould it, and guide our
clients along the way.
Margaret de Valois
Editor
editor@the-actuary.org.uk
October 2008
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� SIAS October 2008
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ISSN 0960-457X
October 2008

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